People Patterns Consulting

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Publications

Canada Job
Trends Update
2012
- National, Provincial
and City Labour Markets

Canadian
Gender Realities
2010
- Men and
Women at home,
at work and play -
National and
Provincial Trends

Labour Crunch to
2021
- National
and Provincial
Labour Force
Projections

Provincial People
Patterns 2007
- Social and
Demographic Trends

Canadian Age
Trends and
Transitions to
2016
- How We Are Shaping Our
Shared Future
(2003)

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Publications

Labour Crunch to 2021
National and Provincial Labour Force Projections

This 56-page report provides a detailed projection of the future labour force for each province and for Canada as a whole to the year 2021. The labour force projections are built on information available in early 2007 and include actual data for 2006.

An earlier version (2000) of this report projected that Canada was facing a 'looming labour shortage" it happened. (The report was quoted in the Wall Street Journal)

This new report predicts that the "labour crunch" will worsen find out why!

"A dramatic increase in international immigration may be necessary to sustain the historical growth in the labour force and the economy. The development of two alternate scenarios suggests that by the year 2021, the required annual rate of immigration may range from 485,000 to over 650,000 per year."

This is a must read for workers, employers and policy makers.

Order your copy now - Only $39.95

Table of contents

  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    • WHY a 1% immigration assumption in the population projection?
  • POPULATION PROJECTIONS
    • Fairly standard except for higher immigration
    • Past fertility main contributor to the number of future workers
    • Natural population increases are shrinking and fast
    • Higher immigration is vital to future population growth in Canada
    • Provincial population projections are more volatile
  • LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS
    • Record level participation rates assumed to hold to 2021
    • Labour force growth will slow to 2021
    • An older work force means a lower participation rate overall
    • Labour force growth will slow sharply over each of the next 5-year periods
    • Labour shortages will dampen the economy
    • There are just a few ways to reduce the economic impact of the labour shortages
    • Annual immigration requirements will grow larger and larger over time
    • Required immigration levels will be increasingly hard to achieve
    • Real earnings may increase rapidly unless
    • The labour force will get a lot older
    • Larger share of labour force will be 55 and over
    • The labour force will tend to be less mobile
    • Unemployment may decline just a bit
    • More self-employment will be the desired option
    • No demographic impact likely on desire for part-time work
    • Fewer dependents per labour force participant for a few more years up later
  • PROVINCIAL LABOUR FORCE SUMMARY
    • The size of the total labour force has already peaked in some provinces
    • Growing share of workers for only three provinces
    • Provinces will need to compete to attract workers
  • PROVINCIAL OVERVIEWS
    • 3 pages of comments and detailed charts and tables per province

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