ONTARIO PEOPLE – Trends and Projections

 

Demographic, social, household, labour market, income
and economic change from an Ontario perspective

It’s all about Ontario …both the GOOD and the BAD.
Ontario People provides an objective and descriptive view of what is happening in the province.

Ontario has clearly enjoyed the benefits of the recovery from the recession of the early 1990s. By end of decade the economy produced record or near-record annual job growth. By 2001, another slowdown was emerging. 

Family incomes improved strongly in recent years but poverty levels still remain above a decade earlier. The family income pie is now even more unevenly distributed than in the past. In just over a decade, Ontario’s dependency on foreign markets has almost doubled. Oshawa and Kitchener have created the most jobs. 

The province now has 12 million people with diverse backgrounds with the vast majority living in large cities. Ontario is a relatively safe place to live and it is true … Toronto has the second lowest property crime rate in the country.

The age, family and household structure is changing rapidly with impacts on consumer spending, the labour force, education, health spending and many other aspects of society.

Ontario People is written for and aimed at the general public including families, individuals, business people, students, educators, libraries, non-profit groups, journalists, politicians, government administrators, planners, union members, academics, analysts, market researchers and everyone else who is interested in the present and future of Ontario.

BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba versions of this report are also available. They cover the same 66 trends with comments and reflections specific to each province.

The report is written by Roger Sauvé of People Patterns Consulting. Roger lived in Ontario for many years and is a past President of the Toronto Association for Business and Economics.

The chapter and the 66 trend headings are listed below.   

Trend

Contents
 

 

THE BASICS OF POPULATION GROWTH

 

1

 12 million have “A place to stand, a place to grow”

 

2

The pull of the cities continues

 

3

 Boom, Bust and Echo – the Ontario version

 

4

 Ontario deaths projected to jump by one-third

 

5

 Population growth will slow “naturally”

 

6

 Surprise? Years of out-migration outnumber gains

 

7

 152,000 Ontario-born now live in Quebec

 

8

 Registered Indian girls outlive average Ontario male

 

9

 It’s a Brain Gain for Ontario

 

10

 4 in 10 people in Toronto are foreign-born

 

11

Seniors will soon outnumber youth

 

 

 

THE ECONOMIC REALITIES

 

12

Productivity in goods sector up during early 1990s

 

13

 Real weekly earnings plateau and then drop

 

14

 Wholesale trade and business services lead growth

 

15

 Young workers are mostly with small establishments

 

16

 International exports more than half of economy

 

17

 Small business less volatile than big business

 

18

 Public administration jobs slide 15% since 1993

 

19

Health workers are the least unionized in Canada

 

 

 

 

 

WORKERS AND WORKPLACES

 

20

Beginning of decades hard on jobs

 

21

Oshawa and Kitchener lead job growth since 1987

 

22

The ups and downs of unemployment

 

23

Women now hold 46% of all paid jobs

 

24

Biggest jump in labour force among females 45-54

 

25

Divorce affects female labour force participation

 

26

Professional occupations in business surge ahead

 

27

Women earn more in only one major occupation

 

28

 Full-time up a bit for women … down a bit for men

 

29

 Job tenure up by 1.5 years for women

 

30

 Two-thirds of self-employed work alone

 

31

 Twice as many health workers now have 2 jobs

 

32

 Older workers to be main source of workers

 

33

 Major labour shortages are just around the corner

Trend

THE JOYS OF EDUCATION

 

34

 Ontario has highest school enrolment rate

 

35

 Leap in post-secondary certificates and diplomas

 

36

 Together forever … education and money

 

37

 Soaring tuition fees … a legacy of the decade

 

38

 Only 10% of poorest households have Internet

 

39

Post-secondary age group set to grow quickly

 

 

 

 

 

CHANGE ON THE HOMEFRONT

 

40

 Unattached and lone-parents up sharply in decade

 

41

 Multiple income families rising again

 

42

 Men get extra 4.6 days of “free time” per year

 

43

 44% of couples 20-24 in common-law relationships

 

44

 First-time brides 2.5 years older than a decade ago

 

45

 Women win two-thirds of child custody orders

 

46

 27% of children in lone or common-law families

 

47

 Fertility rate doubles for 35-39 year olds

 

48

 4 out of 5 people are Christians

 

49

 65+ biggest household group within one decade

 

 

 

 

 

INCOMES AND SAVINGS

 

50

Household incomes remain the highest in Canada

 

51

 Taxes decline during the recession … and in 1999

 

52

Poverty 3rd lowest behind PEI and Saskatchewan

 

53

 Richest 20% have the largest share in Canada

 

54

 Annual savings slashed by more than half

 

 

 

 

 

SPENDING, CULTURE AND SPORTS

 

55

 Per capita retail sales stagnant during decade

 

56

 Record motor vehicle sales in 2000

 

57

 Poorest spend more, as a %, on healthcare

 

58

90% of richest households own a home

 

59

Computer ownership second best among provinces

 

60

 Newspaper reading is most popular cultural activity

 

61

 Golf and baseball are top sports activities

 

62

 Aging society is a plus for charitable donations

 

 

 

 

 

HEALTH AND SAFETY

 

63

 Living longer and longer

 

64

 Best in Canada for NOT drinking and driving

 

65

 Thunder Bay has highest violent crime in Ontario

 

66

 YES! - Toronto has 2nd lowest property crime rate

 

 

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