HOMEThis new 52-page report provides detailed labour force projections for each province and for Canada as a whole by age and sex to the year 2016. The labour force projections are built on information available in early 2000 and include all data for 1999. Charts and tables summarize the projections for each province.
The underlying population projections capture the latest trends in fertility, mortality and migration and plausible assumptions on future outcomes. The population numbers discuss the source of population growth and indicate that Canada can no longer depend on internal growth. Natural population increases are getting smaller each year
Canada-wide conclusions – A looming labour shortage
· The major conclusion of this report is that Canada and the provinces are about to enter a period of severe labour shortages. The Canadian labour force grew by about 226,000 per year during the last quarter century. This will be reduced to only 123,000 per year during the current decade … or at half the pace of the historical period. The annual growth will shrink again to only 42,000 per year during the first half of the next decade … or about one-fifth of the historical rate. By 2016, the annual growth will be near zero. The labour market shortfall will be enormous.
· The absolute size of the total labour force will peak in 8 of the 10 provinces during the period to 2016. The provinces will have difficulty getting the workers that they need.
· The labour shortage will much too large to be met by a record low unemployment rate, by a return to a record high participation rate and even by a 25% increase in the annual growth in labour productivity.
· A dramatic increase in international immigration will be necessary to sustain the historical growth in the labour force and the economy. By the year 2016, the annual rate of immigration that will be required could be as high as 650,000 per year or as low as 520,000 per year if improvements occur in the labour markets. This is much higher than anything that has happened in the past and compares to an average of 166,000 over the last quarter century. Canada may not be able to handle it.
· Real earnings will advance significantly.
· Employers will need to compete to attract the workers that are available.
Age driven effects – Older, less mobile, self-employed and more
· The overall participation rate will decline significantly.
· The share of the labour force comprised of workers aged 45 and over will climb while the share for all others will shrink.
· The labour force will be less mobile
· Higher earnings, lower unemployment and more self-employment are likely.
· There will be fewer dependents per labour force participant.
· … and much more.